Peña Nieto: looking east REVISTA CAMBIO
ANTONIO NAVALÓN 20-OCT-2013
How many years will it take to recover the lost prestige of the United States? Is it viable? Is it possible to live in a guaranteed world, yet, by a country with a large domestic chaos?
Times are tough for the world we know, but can be very good for the one we aspire to build. It is very interesting to see the evolution of the debt of the United States and China. Both countries set, like it or not, the present and surely the Mexican economic future.
The evolution of American debt is shocking: in the last ten years it has risen from 55.36 percent of GDP in 2002 to 102.73 percent in 2012. It’s not just that there is not enough gold to back the dollar – which there is not – , is that, the only way to repay that debt is to do it as was done it the old days: with wars.
On the other hand, we have China that naturally depends on what happens with the evolution of the U.S. debt. For Mexico, economy plays a fundamental role in addressing national priorities. As an example, we have Enrique Peña Nieto who canceled its entire international agenda except for one trip: which was made to the conference of APEC (Asia -Pacific Economic Cooperation). In other words, Mexico and its government are expanding and putting their gaze to the distant East.
It is totally understandable. Not only for the factories we have on the border with the United States, but because the Chinese government and its economic growth model goes through heavy investments in Mexico and, for the first time the “great dragon” has resigned to come with the checkbook and the ship loaded with Chinese people.
The immediate future of the Mexicans is not only built over the success of the structural reforms that we are doing, but on the redefinition of our foreign policy. Mexico needs to re-find its place. We belong to America, but an America that, at present, has two fundamental axes. On one hand, the Brazil – Mexico bond is much more than the power belonging to the so-called BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India and China).
It is, surely, the only viable economic reality in this side of the world for the next 50 years.
The reestablishment of a set of values that compensate the American heaviness and the Americanisms in the global economy is an essential step and, in fact, it is already happening.
I always had in my mind a question; whether Mexico can be governed from a certain healthy distance from USA.
The answer will be seen in the coming years. However, a country with a public debt accumulated representing 102.73% of its GDP on last year; cannot remain as the benchmark for global economic stability. And if they also have most of that debt in
Chinese hands, the level of risk of collapse is generally a matter that we cannot leave out. Therefore, we can only play three cards: first, we must get used to the fact that the right move is towards East. Second, we must examine deeply into the relationship between Brazil and Mexico and, third, we must rebuild a social and economic model that allows us to have developmental thresholds that actually enable the implementation of the structural reforms undertaken and the end of the social gap.
Consequently, at this time of general crisis of leadership it is so important to define from within the country, that is, from us, from the parties, the “think tank” and academies, which foreign policy model we want to have for Mexico in the coming years. There are not many.
No one can be isolated on the Twitter age, but still, as in the path of the elephants, the traces of a world that’s ceasing to be every day, is also not leading us somewhere.
Mexico needs restructuring; from within its own position in order to be able to develop possible partnerships within its place in the world.
Antonio Navalón 